Why 95% of Startups Fail And How to Guarantee Demand Before You Launch
Audience-Market Fit vs. Product-Market Fit: The Key to Startup Success
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Why 95% of Startups Fail—And How to Guarantee Demand Before You Launch
95% of consumer products fail.
80% of SaaS startups never hit product-market fit.
Now put down the credit card.
Do not buy that domain.
The reason most startups fail is not because of bad ideas, but because nobody cares. According to a report from CB Insights, 42% of startups they studied failed due to a lack of market need.
Founders obsess over product-market fit when they should be thinking about audience-market fit. If you can’t build an audience before launch, you won’t have customers after.
Yet founders keep launching, convinced they’re the exception. Founders convince themselves their product is transformative, but they skip the one step that guarantees demand—building an audience before they build a product.
I’ve been there. I joined a fintech startup that spent six months on what they thought was a game-changer. All tech, zero audience.
Launch day? Crickets.
Building a product in 2025 isn’t enough. You need an audience ready and waiting.
This guide breaks down why startups fail and how to validate demand before investing time and money into something nobody wants.
This week I cover:
Why audience-market fit beats product-market fit
Why Attention is Your Real Competitive Edge
Why your audience is your moat
Learn to solve the cold start problem before you launch
The audience-first growth formula
Strategies for audience building
Audience-Market Fit vs. Product-Market Fit: Which One Actually Matters?
Startup gurus love to preach about “product-market fit”.
But here’s the catch:
Markets are moving targets.
Products are replaceable.
Look, product-market fit remains a crucial piece of the puzzle. A truly exceptional product that solves a real problem is still essential. However without an audience, product-market fit is guesswork. You’re trying to tune an engine with no fuel.
Juicero, the "smart" juice press that raised $120 million, became a poster child for Silicon Valley excess. The $400 device promised fresh juice from proprietary packs but flopped spectacularly when people discovered they could simply squeeze the packs by hand.
Juicero didn’t solve a real problem. Worse, it highlighted what happens when startups skip engaging their audience pre-launch. A few simple focus groups could have revealed the product’s fatal flaw and saved them from becoming a cautionary tale.
What really matters, and what provides that essential "fuel," is audience-market fit. Audience-market fit ensures that your product has a receptive audience ready to embrace it from day one.
With an engaged audience, you’re not betting it all on one product. You can test multiple ideas, pivot if needed and shape demand instead of chasing it.
Launching with an audience means:
Validation Before Spending: Your audience becomes your early adopters and focus group, letting you test ideas before you sink your savings into them.
Built-in Demand: Launch day feels like a celebration, not a desperate scramble for attention. Your audience will already be lining up.
Lower Costs: Forget splurging on ads. A loyal audience markets for you because they believe in what you’re building.
Basecamp proved it.
Before launch, their blog attracted tens of thousands of readers. That audience guaranteed demand. Within months, they were making $10K/month.
Without an audience, you’re spending 10x more on ads, fighting for attention in a sea of noise.
Your audience is your cheat code.
Why Capturing Attention is the #1 Startup Advantage in 2025
Building an audience compounds faster than perfecting your code:
Every follower brings their network.
Every subscriber amplifies your reach.
Every reader becomes an ambassador.
Unlike code, which can be copied, an engaged audience is your unfair advantage.
In one startup, I spent two weeks diving deep into our niche's pain points. before writing a single line of code. We built everything around those frustrations, and it clicked. A win with minimal spend, as those early customers became ambassadors and spread the word.
Those early customers will turn into ambassadors, spreading the word and bringing even more people to the table.
Build an audience now, or spend 10x more catching up later.
How a Loyal Audience Protects Your Startup from Competition
Most founders think their moat is their tech.
Shiny features, proprietary algorithms, the whole “first-mover advantage” fairytale
But tech is copyable.
Audiences are loyal to people, not products. They’ll defend you on Reddit, recommend you to their friends, and stick with you even when your competitor launches with a lower price.
Investors notice this too.
A strong audience signals demand, credibility, and momentum.
Your audience and their trust is the real moat.
How to Overcome the Cold Start Problem and Launch Successfully
The cold start problem is one many founders underestimate.
Launching without an audience is like throwing a party without a guest list. The venue could be stunning, the playlist fire, but if no one’s there, the vibe is dead.
Most startups fail because they build products no one cares about. Don’t be that founder.
Figma got it right. They didn’t just launch a tool, they built a community.
From the beginning, they brought designers into their beta, listened to feedback, and made them feel like they were part of something bigger. By the time they launched, they had loyal evangelists, not just users.
That’s how you solve the cold start problem: build the buzz before you launch.
Audience-First Growth: A Proven Framework for Startup Success
Most founders:
Product → Pray → Pivot.
Smart founders:
Audience → Product → Growth.
Here’s how:
Define your ideal customer.
Build an audience by solving their problems.
Share insights that stop them in their tracks.
Let their feedback shape your roadmap.
Build an MVP to test your ideas.
Launch to a crowd already hyped for you.
Product follows audience, not the other way around.
Build an MVP using no-code tools like Replit and Lovable.
Formula: Audience → Product → Growth
The smartest founders don’t build for the crowd. They build with the crowd.
Once you have an audience, listen to them. Use their feedback to shape your roadmap.
Strategies for Audience Building
You don’t need a million followers to get started. 100 engaged fans is more beneficial.
Here’s how to build an audience from scratch:
Identify where your target audience hangs out online (specific subreddits, Facebook groups, LinkedIn communities, etc.) and become a valuable contributor. Share your expertise, answer questions, and build relationships. Don't just promote your product; focus on providing genuine value.
Forget generic blog posts. Create in-depth guides, tutorials, templates, and tools that solve real problems for your audience. This is how you establish authority and build trust.
Instead of cold emailing potential customers, find people who are already talking about the problem you solve and engage with them. Offer insights, answer their questions, and become a trusted resource.
Build an email list. Yes I know it is 2025 and I’m still talking about email lists. But your email list is your direct line to your audience. Offer a valuable lead magnet (e.g., an e-book, a cheat sheet, a free course) in exchange for email addresses.
Create a brand identity that your target audience loves. This includes developing a unique brand voice, visual identity, and messaging. Think Liquid Death.
While building your audience, focus on balancing engagement with product development.
Gather feedback to guide product decisions
Build an MVP to test your ideas with real users
Refine and iterate based on their input rather than assumptions
The key is consistency. Show up. Share insights. And don’t be afraid to experiment.
The goal is simple.
By the time you launch, you’re solving problems your audience already cares about.
Don’t fall in to the trap of trying to appeal to everyone. This dilutes your message and reduces your relevance to specific customer segments. Focus on a specific niche or target audience to maximise your impact.
My Final Thoughts
We’re shifting from “Minimum-Viable-Product“ to “Minimum-Visible-Product”.
Stop chasing perfection. Start building relationships with your first 100 fans. They’ll validate your ideas, amplify your message, and stick with you when competitors show up.
Your audience isn’t just a research lab.
They’re your co-creators, beta testers, and loudest evangelists.
They’re your real moat.
They’re your edge.
Until next week,
Martin
P.S. This week’s soundtrack: Go Your Own Way by Fleetwood Mac. Perfect vibes for charting your own path and ditching startup fairy tales.
Tool of the week - Replit | Build MVPs with Ease
Meet Replit Agent, the AI-powered coding assistant transforming how developers work. It’s so intuitive that even non-coders can build and launch apps in record time.
Here’s how I used Replit to build an MVP
Book of the Week
"Superfans" by Pat Flynn
Building loyal audiences is the key to startup survival. Pat Flynn’s Superfans shows how to turn casual followers into die-hard advocates.
Been there... Done that :)
Not with a startup but with a videogame. Spent a year building it, hired folks, no validation whatsoever.
If anyone here thinks the idea alone its enough, trust me it's not. Without an audience you are just guessing. Or you can say you have a very expensive hobby.
Validate, sell, then start to build.
Good insight 😌 Can i translate part of this article into Spanish with links to you and a description of your newsletter?